The Decomposition Chart is the “source of truth” in your analysis. It answers the most critical question in marketing: “Which specific levers actually moved the needle?”
In MMM Pilot, we often call this the Contribution Breakdown. It takes your total sales and slices them up like a cake, showing you exactly how much “flavor” (revenue) came from each ingredient (channel).
1. The Big Split: Organic vs. Paid
The first thing you will notice is the division between two major forces:
- Organic Base (Baseline): This is the foundation. It represents the sales that happened naturally—due to brand reputation, seasonality, or customers just walking in the door.
- Paid Contribution (Incremental): These are the sales driven directly by your marketing activities (Facebook, Google, TV, etc.).
Why this matters: Most ad platforms claim credit for everything. The Decomposition chart strips away the “Organic Base” to show you the true impact of your ads.
2. The Waterfall Chart: Building the Total
One of the key visualizations you will see is a Waterfall Plot.
- How to read it: It usually starts with a large bar on the left (your Organic Base).
- The Steps: Moving to the right, you will see smaller floating bars added on top. Each bar represents the extra revenue added by a specific channel (e.g., +$5,000 from Facebook, +$2,000 from Email).
- The Result: When you add the Base + all the Channel Bars, you reach the “Total Revenue” on the far right. This visualizes how your marketing “stacks up” to build your business.
3. Share of Spend vs. Share of Effect
This is the most powerful tool for reporting to clients. The chart allows you to compare two percentages side-by-side:
- Share of Spend: “We spent 50% of our budget on Instagram.”
- Share of Effect (Contribution): “But Instagram only drove 20% of our sales.”
The Insight: If a channel’s “Effect” bar is much smaller than its “Spend” bar, it is inefficient (expensive). If the “Effect” bar is huge compared to the spend, you have found a growth opportunity.
4. Telling the Story
When presenting this to a client or stakeholder, use the Decomposition chart to validate your strategy:
- “The model shows that 60% of our sales are actually Organic, driven by your strong brand presence.”
- “While we spent heavily on Search, the Decomposition shows that Social Video actually contributed more incremental revenue. We should shift budget there next month.”
Final Reminder
Remember, this chart is a probabilistic model—a highly sophisticated estimate based on patterns. It is not a bank receipt, but it is the most objective map of performance available to modern marketers.